Automated Vehicles & Canada

What could automated vehicles do for Canadians and the economy? The Conference Board of Canada takes a look (infographic):
http://www.conferenceboard.ca/infographics/automated-vehicles.aspx

Access the full report here:
http://www.conferenceboard.ca/e-library/abstract.aspx?did=6744
Click the button at right labelled “access document”; it requires an account to be created.

Study shows that those who drive over 10 hours a week are 3 times more likely to cede control to autonomous vehicles and that confident, aggressive drivers are least likely to surrender control:

https://phys.org/news/2017-06-drivers-cautious-curious-automated-cars.html

What does a TowerCo “look like”? (introduction to Real Estate for Telecom)

TowerCo

When I mention “TowerCo” (Tower Companies), real estate companies that are like an apartment building landlord… but for towers, I see the confusion in people’s eyes. Essentially, the tenants (renters) are antennas that get mounted to the tower (apartment building). What’s the best way to visualize what one looks like? Well, just look at their advertising – they have towers for rent! Here’s an advertisement from American Tower showing that they have acquired new towers in the following USA geographic locations.

American Tower Advertisement Nov 12, 2015

(click to enlarge)

The TowerCo industry itself comprises many companies across the globe. According to the industry’s journal TowerXchange, TowerCos already own 2/3rds of the world’s 3 Million towers. In the USA TowerCos own ~61% of the ~270K towers. In Canada, that figure is less than 5%.

TowerCo ownership, or companies that are exclusively real estate (do not sell telecom services), are a key indicator for broadband costs (e.g. cell phone data plans). This is because they offer a business model that promotes sharing and reduces costs. The reader may learn more about how the TowerCo business model reduces costs on my slideshare presentation entitled “Broadband Internet – The ‘Railroad of Our Era'”.

TowerCo Market

In the USA the top 3 tower companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange are:

  • SBA Communications
  • American Tower
  • Crown Castle

All three operate as “Real Estate Investment Trusts” (REITs), further confirming that they are real estate companies. Collectively they own, lease and manage 95,000 towers and are worth $69 Billion. One of these top 3 companies, SBA, has moved into Canada with a subsidiary called SBA Canada. (@ early 2014) The other major TowerCo in Canada is Turris Corp.

TowerCo Strategy

I’m including text from the podcast “Tower Talks with Inside Towers: #15 – TowerXchange CEO Kieron Osmotherly” (@9:17) which accurately summarizes the TowerCo strategy from the perspective of a mobile network operator (examples are Telus, Bell, AT&T, Verizon, etc) and provides some metrics on the performance of this business strategy.

We pickup in the podcast where Kieron is talking about the common fundamentals of the Tower market:  “… [A] telecom tower on a mobile network operator’s balance sheet is a depreciating asset built to serve the needs of one customer. You take that tower and you put it on a Tower company’s balance sheet and it becomes a potential source of long term recurring revenue from multiple credit worthy tenants.

We’re correcting a flaw in the original design of wireless communications which created this overlapping infrastructure. And we’re correcting that to a more efficient collocation driven model. The capital markets recognize that. It’s reflected in the valuation performance of tower companies. It aggregates up to a $330 Billion dollar global infrastructure asset class which is out-performing most relevant comparisons.

TowerCo Investment

As we mentioned before between them the tower companies now have 69% of the world’s invest-able assets which is a pretty good proportion. Most tower companies stick to that blueprint.

There is significant variation when you look at the difference between a pure play independent tower company like American Tower, SBA, Cellnex, HBS. These guys are fantastic at shareholder value creation and generating efficiencies. They typically trade at EBITA margins between 60-80% valued 15-25x.

And then we’ve got a relatively recent variant on the business model which we call the operator-led tower company [TowerCo]…. It’s at least 50.01% owned by the original parent mobile network operator(s). In comparison, to a pure play independent tower company [TowerCo] you often see slightly lower EBITA margins of perhaps 40-60%. And valuations of 10-15x are still significantly greater than the valuations of mobile network operators.

I think we’ve arrived at the day and age where pretty much everyone understands that a tower that’s trapped on a mobile network operator’s balance sheet is uh, it’s difficult to defend that position to shareholders these days. Whether you’re going to carve it out or sell it, it should be shared.

About the Author

An avid writer, Trevor Textor has been quoted by Reader’s Digest, NBC News, Reviews.com and MarketWatch.com. As a freelancer Trevor has moved towers off of an Oil & Gas company’s balance sheet in a sale and leaseback deal to a TowerCo. Ask Trevor if he can help: https://www.textor.ca/contactme/

The Anti-Store

Finally! The NPR Planet Money episode on Price Club / Costco. Why they purposely make shopping harder and why people love it. The quotes in this podcast are priceless; from the founder himself “I was adamant that we would not have signs telling people where things were because that would make it likely that they would wander through all the aisles and find other things to buy.”

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/09/25/443519599/episode-653-the-anti-store

Here’s something I don’t understand about people shopping at Costco. Clearly Costco is not a “quick stop” experience. There are no express cashiers! So why do people still insist on going to Costco to buy a single item???

Image of Costco patron buying only two items (that’s my stuff on the left) on Oct 30, 2015 – bananas and bread?:

Planet Money Podcasts for the Canadian Federal Election (#elxn41)

Can politicians “create jobs”? How do they balance the interests of so many stakeholders in a trade deal? What could a “carbon tax” look like? What if politicians only did “what is right” instead of promising things to buy votes? (No-Brainer Economic platform)

Some podcasts from Planet Money that help educate voters and are appropriate for the Canadian federal election.

How Do You Create A Job?
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/04/05/135151990/the-tuesday-podcast-how-do-you-create-a-job

Trade Deal Confidential – Behind the scenes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/06/26/417851577/episode-635-trade-deal-confidential

The One-Page Plan To Fix Global Warming
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/07/12/201502003/episode-472-the-one-page-plan-to-fix-global-warming

The No-Brainer Economic Platform
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/07/18/156928675/episode-387-the-no-brainer-economic-platform

The Fastest Growing, Least Popular Airline In America

NPR Planet Money explores our preferences, specifically the difference between what people say and what people do. Economists call this “stated preferences” (What they say they want) vs “revealed preferences” (what people actually choose). Bargain basement airlines are a perfect example as heard in this podcast.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/02/14/276973956/episode-517-the-fastest-growing-least-popular-airline-in-america

Is Canada Moving to an Open Access Network?

By the CRTC mandating that telecom companies must share their passive broadband infrastructure might mean that Canada is moving toward an OAN. That means companies might actually need to show a return on investment for their passive infrastructure assets (fiber, conduit, towers) rather than using them to block competition. I’m all for the Telecom companies making a profit (I’m a shareholder of many of them) but I’d rather they do it on the service side in open, honest competition. We know from experience that competition drives companies to be innovative. I would like all the Telecom companies I own to be around for a long, long time and the “we’ve always done it this way” (no innovation) is going to kill them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/07/30/this-controversial-internet-policy-has-divided-americans-for-years-now-canadas-just-adopted-it/

http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?mthd=tp&crtr.page=1&nid=1004669&crtr.tp1D=1

What Sensors & Big Data Can Lead To

This planet money follows a UPS truck where sensors & big data lead to small changes that make large bottom line impacts: 1 minute per driver per day over the course of a year adds up to $14.5M. One keystroke per driver costs $100K/year. 1 minute of idle per driver per day is worth $500K in additional fuel costs at the end of the year. Shaving all this time via efficiencies worked for the workers too. In the last decade, their wages & benefits have doubled.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/05/02/308640135/episode-536-the-future-of-work-looks-like-a-ups-truck

What should I do with my life?: Choosing a Career / University / College Major

Consider the Statistics

NPR Planet Money explores choosing a university / college major (What should I do with my life?) – it’s a more important decision than the school a person attends. Yet the decision is often made at a whim. The dollar impact over a person’s lifetime could be millions. For instance Petroleum engineering has a median income of $120K/yr. Whereas Counselling Psychology median’s is $30K/yr.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/09/11/221417806/episode-485-whats-your-major

This is the graph that illustrates why a person should go to college:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/10/02/349863761/40-years-of-income-inequality-in-america-in-graphs

This chart shows job titles on an income ladder:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/10/16/356176018/the-most-popular-jobs-for-the-rich-middle-class-and-poor

Not having a college degree:

  • impacts life expectancy due to exposure to “deaths of despair”: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/787555423. This is all too real, Planet Money’s “Big Rigged” podcast has a heartbreaking story of how simple hard work backfires; click here to listen.

Consider these other textor.ca posts:

USA Job Graph Illustrates that the future in 1st World jobs is service

Review of “7 Workplace Myths Disproven By Research” which explains that a person should do what makes a difference in other people’s lives. Not what they love.

“What should I do with my life?” – How to Choose by Prototyping

Cold hard statistics might not really help when considering “What should I do with my life?”. A podcast episode of Hidden Brain called “You 2.0: Getting Unstuck” offers good advice to help figure out what to do with your life using design thinking/prototypes.

Avocation = the thing you do for love, not money. Many times you need a vocation to pay for the avocation.

“Many of us feel stuck – stuck at work, stuck in the wrong city, stuck in life. When that happens, we often end up asking ourselves, what should I do? Where should I live? What’s my ideal life? It turns out, these normal questions are counterproductive to getting us unstuck. They place an unbearable pressure on us, the pressure to know how things are supposed to turn out.

The next time that happens to you, think of your life the way a designer at a tech company thinks of a new product. You don’t quite know what you want to build. Just for fun, you come up with a prototype, then a second and a third. You pay attention to whether you enjoy building one kind of prototype or another. You listen to feedback from others. You go back to the drawing board and try again. When someone asks you years later how you knew what you wanted to be, you can tell them – honestly, I didn’t.”

Consider Your Personality

There are many personality systems and here’s one: DISC “D (dominance), I (influence), S (steadiness), and C (conscientiousness)”. Based on your personality, there are certain careers where your personality will be an additional strength. This page helps explain DISC and the e-book referenced at the bottom of the page called “Personality and Career Decisions” has a list of careers by DISC-type: https://www.crystalknows.com/blog/i-hate-my-job

The Financial Consideration of Post Secondary School

Jill Schlesinger, business analyst for CBS News and the author of “The Dumb Things Smart People Do With Their Money.” recommends that debt for post secondary education should not exceed what you think you can earn in your first job out of school in the first year. Click here to learn more.

Consider The Future Economy And Politics

Any decision you make should be in the context of not what the economy and politics is like “now” but what it may look like when you enter the workforce. How might the economy and politics be changing in the coming decade? Is what you choose to do going to be aligned with that? If you’ve already chosen a career, what changes might “put you out of a job”? Click here to watch the video “The Third Industrial Revolution” to see what millennials and the subsequent generations are expected to face.

Put Experts and Mentors In the Right Light

As you navigate your life and career, the best Mentor will be the one who believes in you and helps develop opportunities. Don’t invest too much in expert advise of what to do, which can be helpful for helping to indicate paths not considered, but often times are discouraging. Research indicates that expert opinions can be no better than chimpanzees throwing darts. The same research indicates the best experts (or “superforecasters”) are actively open-minded thinkers; they have an ability to change their mind based on new information and admit their mistakes. (Note: There is a method to finding true experts called the “surprisingly popular answer”, which is not the popular answer which leads lemmings off cliffs)

Started Your Job? Quit It

Podcast “The Indicator” explains that quitting your job is a very healthy thing. Economists worry that climbing the job ladder within a company puts people into jobs that are less of a match for their skills which then puts them into a tenuous position when a recession hits. Since switching jobs is usually a better fit for a person’s skills they become more recession resistant. In addition, switching jobs usually represents a kind of promotion and can bring benefits such as an increase in status, more pay and generally, if the skills match is better, a more productive worker. It appears the reality now is to be loyal to your work; that is, do what you agreed to and do a good job on it. But loyalty to your employer? That is something that belongs to past generations. Finally, this strategy tends to support finding a place that values you. Click here to read about the daughter and the Nissan Skyline R34.

Still Not Convinced? Consider BS Jobs

Before you start your career it’s important to understand how jobs can become generally meaningless, contribute no value what-so-ever and thereby impact your emotional well-being. I believe you should know about this so you know it’s not you and help you figure out quicker if it’s just time to move on. Listen the applicable Hidden Brain episode “BS Jobs: How Meaningless Work Wears Us Down” by clicking here. They cover all the types of BS jobs (duct tapers, taskmasters (2 types), goons and flunkies) and explain how they occur.

About the Author

Trevor Textor is father of three beautiful children he hopes one day to change the world and be happy doing it. He’s had his own career at a blue chip company only to leave it to pursue being an entrepreneur to explore all the ideas most blue chip company mentors told him would fail (they didn’t). If you’d like to get in touch with Trevor click here. Trevor has a hobby following Behavioural Economics and regularly updates this article with the new things he’s learned. The article was lasted updated: 05May2021.