Forget Net Neutrality and Build More!

How net neutrality is understood is that there is a limited resource and specific applications are being favored and some are not. This is not really what is happening.  Data use on the internet is doubling every 1.9 years and this large S-curve style growth curve is driving the need for building, re-building and re-building again, similar to the growth that processors experienced. Most of the growth is fueled by video as broken down here:

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/02/netflix-packets-being-dropped-every-day-because-verizon-wants-more-money/

Think of the internet as a system of driveways, roads and highways. Now, at a 2 year growth rate, the number of lanes in place on the roads and highways needs to double every 2 years to accommodate this growth.  Otherwise what happens is gridlock, or in the networking world what we call congestion. What happens during gridlock/rush hour? Take an ambulance. Sure, it has priority but it still takes longer to get through during gridlock. It’s much better to just build more lanes right?

What is happening behind the scenes is a debate about business models. How do companies make money while still accommodating this growth? How does the model encourage growth?

The current business models may have worked well for unconverged communications but the reality is that everything has converged. By converged we mean that voice, video (TV), email, literally everything, uses the same physical wires whereas in the past they each had their own wire. Because of how it all came about, the incumbent communications companies own the passive infrastructure, which is to say the cables, buildings, and towers that electronics and radios use (called active infrastructure). This passive infrastructure makes up somewhere between 75-95% of the cost of providing communications. Because of its huge cost passive infrastructure creates a natural monopoly if a company controls both the active and passive infrastructure as typically the company makes money from the active infrastructure.

The business model that benefits the economy & consumers is an Open Access Network (OAN) business model in which the passive infrastructure ownership is separate from the active infrastructure ownership. Passive infrastructure investment should behave like real estate – the owner is essentially looking to place as many active infrastructure tenants as possible to maximize their return. Being freed from the capital outlay, the active infrastructure companies have more money to build, re-build and build some more (and coincidentally there is more competition).

And finally, the country is not overbuilding its passive infrastructure… yes, all of Canada could be serviced well despite the large size as there is an incredible amount of passive infrastructure just sitting empty. Regulation aside, there is no passive infrastructure marketplace like in the USA or the UK making it difficult for active infrastructure participants that do not own passive infrastructure to build networks.

So next time someone asks about “net neutrality”, explain to them what they really want is an OAN and an effective passive infrastructure marketplace.

Want to know more about Open Access Networks and Net Neutrality? Wikipedia has some great summaries:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-access_network

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutrality

How Far a Paycheck goes & how it feels (by city)

An interesting graph by NPR’s Planet Money.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/05/20/313131559/how-far-your-paycheck-goes-in-356-u-s-cities

I’ve heard that Alberta is similar to New York City but with the “Canada” premium (extra 30%). Alternately one might argue Denver is a better comparison… but the idea comes across. The steepness of the line shows that even if more income is generated it doesn’t feel like it goes very far.

 

Oil Companies don’t make that much money

Here you have it, straight from Forbes on the 5 facts everyone should know about Oil Exploration:

“Oil companies don’t really make that much money…. This is an incredibly capital-intensive industry….Frankly, it’s a miracle anyone wants to be in this business at all. I truly think the major oil companies are underpaid. The risk-adjusted returns are crap compared to most sectors.”

Sounds to me like an industry that could really leverage better real time communications to de-risk the business & access technical know-how anywhere it is in the world.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2013/04/03/what-are-the-top-five-facts-everyone-should-know-about-oil-exploration/

Podcast Review: The Economist’s Guide To Drinking While Pregnant

For some reason health advice is black and white but the research it’s based on is anything but. Example: You’re not allowed to drink while pregnant. Turns out that most of the studies this is based on, most of the participants were on cocaine. Of the people not on crack, they were heavy drinkers – 5-6 beverages per day, every day. Turns out, it’s hard to tell if there is any effect for someone who occasionally drinks (less than 1 a day). But doctors are pre-disposed to be more cautious since they can get sued if they take a liberal approach.  This podcast speaks to Economist Emily Oster and how she used economics to approach her own pregnancy and pregnancy related health research.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/08/20/213885032/episode-481-the-economists-guide-to-drinking-while-pregnant

Review of TED talk “How Will You Measure Your Life?” by Clay Christensen

Clay explains that why companies & individuals fail is that we are predisposed to focus on activities that provide an immediate/tangible evidence of achievement. In this way activities that do not pay off for years or decades in the future are neglected. That is, there is no investment for the long term.

Clay suggests that instead of being measured by an aggregate measure (e.g. big pools of money), at our death, we will be measured on our impact on others. Choosing the right measure is important. Our actions are influenced by the measure we choose.

For a corporation, I interpret this as companies that invest enable sustained, positive long term growth. Their investors and employees experience symptoms of safe & nurturing environments (e.g. dividend growth for their personal financial situation, positive workplace where innovation is rewarded).

This is in contrast to the high pressure cooker “meet today’s targets to bolster today’s stock price” environment. Symptoms of this situation are constant stress and a feeling that you’ve missed an opportunity to contribute meaningfully.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvos4nORf_Y

Income inequality – it’s not about you!

It’s about “us” as in the global “us”. Not Canada. Not the USA. Even the poorest North American is in the top 20%. Being in this category means that magnitude changes are small. We’re on top already after all. How will the rest of the globe being better off make all of us better off? That’s the real story. NPR Planet Money provides a picture of what is happening with global incomes:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/08/12/338347325/inequality-is-falling-on-planet-earth

Fuel Efficient Cars = Under Maintained Roads

Who knew fuel efficient cars would lead to under maintained roads? This is because taxes are collected on fuel use but we’ve gotten more miles from the same fuel – meaning road wear is double. This doesn’t even consider the fact that the taxes are not indexed to inflation. Either mileage based user fees get collected (charged by the miles you drive, instead of fuel consumed) or we accept that our roads are going to look post-apocalyptic.

Commentary of Where We are in History

We are coming into a unique generation, where problems will now be solved by leadership and governance, not by technology. Why? Most of the technology to do what we want to do now exists. This leaves our leaders in somewhat of a pressure cooker; a great leadership sifting whose beginning may be marked by the Occupy Wall Street Movement. (a completely unorganized and ineffective attempt to re-align corporate directors with shareholder interests – their heart was in the right place)